Back to the Future
“There is no such thing as a new idea. It is impossible. We simply take a lot of old ideas and put them into a sort of mental kaleidoscope" - Mark Twain
Nothing is New
One of my favorite quotes in history comes from Ecclesiastes 1:9. Ecclesiastes was written by King Solomon of Israel, who was the son of King David, and ruled Israel during the 900s BCE. Israel was at the peak of its power and influence during this time, and Solomon’s wisdom was sought after by all of the known world. His writings - Proverbs and Ecclesiastes - were divinely inspired and put in the Old Testament where people still seek them for their wisdom to this day. As an investor, and believer, I have tried to remember this verse always. I personally subscribe to the repeating, or rhyming, of history.. Much of this is driven by the cursed consistency of human nature, and its powerful derivatives.
While continually looking at what is going on in the world, having this lens gives me perspective on what I see. It also helps me in my ultimate job as in investor where I am required to have a worldview, and act upon it with capital and resources. Every year I like to look at the obvious themes that are happening to drive some of the investing ideas and opportunities I want to spend time in. The one that is most prominent to me is an awareness of the current US zeitgeist, which I like to call, Back to the Future.
Back to the Future
Back to the Future is the belief that the United States has an incredible opportunity for another golden century, and in order to do so, we must return to the ideas that made us successful in the prior century. Many of these ideas are ones that were deemed archaic, wrong, regressive, or misguided just a few years ago by the majority of Americans. There is a ton of nuance here of course, so there is some generalizations here, but we are experiencing a shifting of sentiment across policy, industry, economics, politics, and the status quo of the world order. I will highlight a few of the leading Back to the Future ideas of today that were strongly consensus during the 19th and 20th century, but had become out of vogue for a period of time during the 21st century.
American Industrial Prowess - We are returning to a desire to have American manufacturing prowess with a strong focus on Industrial policy. Investments in manufacturing shot up during the Biden administration through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS bill. This trend will only continue during the Trump administration through tariffs and subsidies.
Military Industrial Prowess - Almost 8 out of every 10 Americans support a larger military. Increasing military might and defense spending, as well as focusing on national security, has become the popular view again. In fact, acknowledging we were in a Cold War with China was once considered xenophobic, but now is held as a bipartisan view.
Christianity - More and more Americans see the value in a society having a religious foundation which represents a sharp shift in sentiment. In fact, not only is the New Atheism movement failing (lack of a moral alternative, rise of woke-ism, obvious failings of hedonism and nihilism, flaws in biogenesis/macro evolutionary theory), but even Bible sales are up! This trend is also global as The Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary recently reported that global Christianity is experiencing remarkable growth, defying expectations and surpassing population rates.
Marriage and Kids - Americans are living in what I like to call an extended adolescence which has led to a postponing of getting married and having kids. To be clear, I am apart of this generation and apart of the problem. There are many factors for this, some cultural, some economic, and some societal. However, the economic risks of a declining population have begun to change American’s views on the need to begin the all important part of life - starting a family.
Tariffs & Taxes - During decades of globalization, tariffs still existed as they were held in place in accordance with their original goals, but in the public mind they slowly just became an economic warfare tool. Our government over the last century found its major revenue source from taxes. Today, however, we are again having discussions on what an appropriate percentage of revenue our economy should be getting from tariffs, harkening back to the early days of our Republic where our entire economy was paid for by tariffs.
Smaller Government - Once an untouchable topic, 61% of Americans now support President Trump’s plan to downsize the government. The Department of Government Efficiency has a stated goal to reverse course for the US and cut $3B/day while also downsizing the number of Federal employees. We are reversing course on our opinions about the size of government, and trending slightly away from an FDR mindset towards a more Jeffersonian view.
Conclusion
To conclude, the old ideas are winning again not just because of a romanticism of the past, but also because the new ideas were flat out failing. Sexual liberation is losing to the desire for value and purpose. New atheism is losing to hopelessness. Post modernism is losing to declining birth dates. Globalization is losing to a decimated middle class. Environmentalism is losing to stagnation and inflation. And ultimately, nothing truly is new under the sun, as these old ideas are now in vogue again. We aren’t in full reversion of course, and some things are structurally very different now, but sometimes you have to learn from the past in order to gain wisdom and guidance for the future.
